Election Ventura Proof

MY RANKINGS, THE RESULTS, AND THE MONEY

The day before the election I put out my rankings of all 14 city council candidates, all districts, one list. Now the votes are coming in, so let me grade my own list honestly, because I think it held up better than people expected.

Start with the bottom of my list, because that is the story. I ranked Karba Eckley 10th, Liz Campos 12th, and Jeannette Sanchez-Palacios 14th, dead last. All three of them are leading their races tonight.

Now look at the money, because we all read the filings story today. Eckley raised $22,412, the most of any candidate in this election. Campos raised the second most, $11,051 after the amended form she filed on Election Day. Sanchez-Palacios raised $8,025, and on top of that the National Association of Realtors spent $27,480 in outside money behind her, the biggest outside spend of the whole cycle. The three biggest money candidates in Ventura are the three I put at the bottom of my list, and the money went 3 for 3 tonight.

I did not rank them down there by accident. Eckley never came to the public forum. That is the money side of Ventura politics, the side that raises the most, spends the most, and answers the fewest questions, and I was not picking it. These rankings were never endorsements. They were my honest read.

Now take those three out, and look at the other 11 names on my list, because this is the part I want you to see. The voters ordered them almost exactly the way I did.

District 6. I had Noe Aguilar 1st on my whole list and Danny Carrillo 3rd, then James Loughrie, Steven Almcrantz and Kevin Daly near the bottom. Tonight, behind Eckley, it goes Aguilar Vega 663, Carrillo 608, Loughrie 307, Almcrantz 261, Daly 173. That is my exact order.

District 4. Behind Sanchez-Palacios, I had Scott Shoemake 5th, Rich Rosin 6th and Kyle Clark 11th. Tonight it goes Shoemake 837, Rosin 513, Clark 121. My exact order again.

District 5. I had Vernon Alstot 4th and the incumbent, Bill McReynolds, 9th. Tonight Alstot has 2,804 votes, the biggest total of any council candidate in any district, and McReynolds has 1,300. The challenger I backed beat the incumbent, and it was not close.

Now my honest misses, because there are two. Crawford Coates at number 2 was the big one I got wrong. Campos beat him 1,310 to 678 in District 1, and I own that. And Vernon should have been higher on my list. I should have had him up near the very top, right by Crawford. I kind of fibbed there, and the voters proved it tonight.

And my number 1 pick is still standing in the one race that is not over. Noe Aguilar Vega is 150 votes out of first in District 6 with the late ballots still being counted, in the closest race in the city.

So that is the night. The money won its three races, exactly the three candidates I ranked last. Everywhere the money was not, Ventura voted almost exactly the list I wrote down. I will take that.